Why Google Chrome will win and why it will lose

Why Chrome will win and why it will lose

Nick Heath

Google dipped its mighty toe into the increasingly crowded world of internet browsers today with the announcement of Chrome.

After all the polished promises of a streamlined new way to tame the Web, the blogosphere was ready to predict everything from the end of Firefox to the demise of Microsoft itself.

Builder AU sister site silicon.com spoke to industry experts and Google's new rivals to find out why Chrome matters and whether the browser reality can deliver on the hype.

Bye bye Microsoft

Google Chrome has shades of an OS in a browser's clothing and the gradual encroachment on Redmond's turf must have a few Microsoft execs sweating.

The way it will allow users to run and manage applications without an OS' intervention could mean the beginning of the end for the days of Vista's bloatware.

David Mitchell, VP for IT research at analysts Ovum, said: "What you are seeing is the language of the browser coming very close to that of the operating system, with services provided at the browser level rather than the OS level.

"If some of the OS functionality is within the browser then there will be a demand for a more anorexic OS running underneath.

"It is a big step towards telling people like Microsoft that they are not so popular after all."

Google-branded life

Chrome will provide a central point for the company's panoply of services and applications, offering a hub to consolidate everything from Google Maps and Docs to Gmail and Shopping.

Google already has millions of users on Google Apps -- applications from calendaring to video, all hosted on its cloud computing infrastructure, and a Google branded browser is an obvious way to persuade even more users to start experimenting with the company's other Web-based offerings.

Nate Elliott, research director at analysts Jupiter Research, said: "This is not a new idea, they have had the Google toolbar for four to five years with the idea of driving users towards their products and services. Now you will have what is a far bigger and better version of the toolbar to drive users towards those services."

Consumer love-in

Google has proven to be a master of wooing consumers, charming consumers by offering free versions of traditionally paid for services.

With 70 per cent of the world's Web searches going through the search engine, it's built up a brand awareness so strong that the verb "to Google" is already part of the lexicon. It's this popularity that can give Chrome a headstart and quickly turn it into a contender.

Google's history of consumer-pleasing and unfussy design -- think of its sparse, ad-free homepage -- could serve Chrome well. Jupiter Research's Elliott said: "Google products are typically very easy to use and very consumer friendly.

"They focus extremely heavily on this relationship and everything that they do keeps consumers in mind."

Tor Odland, head of communications for rival browser Opera, said: "They have a massive footprint and Google will probably be more successful than another company trying this because of that."

No more lock-ups

It might sound trivial but the ability to kill individual tabs within Chrome will spell the end of the hair tearing frustration of a single rogue Web page bringing the entire browser crashing down.

Not only that but the way the browser will run every tab in an isolated "sandbox" will provide improved protection from malicious sites.

Ovum's Mitchell said: "Each tab is attached to a separate process and can be managed separately.

"It is a bit like what Window NT offered in terms of stability. Most of the current generation of browsers would crash if there was a badly behaved tab but Chrome can quit the tab and it will still work."

Microsoft too is working on the ability to kill a tab and still save the browser, with a similar feature showing up in IE8 beta 2.

If you can't beat them

Google is taking the "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" approach with Chrome, shamelessly borrowing features from its would-be competitors.

These include the open source approach of Firefox; Opera's speed dial function, where a homepage presents thumbnails of your most visited sites; an "incognito" window for private browsing where nothing is recorded, similar to Safari and the forthcoming IE8, and an address bar with auto-completion features.

Opera's Odland said: "It is very much a market where everybody knows what everybody else is doing and you can expect Google to take innovations such as the speed dial homepage and tabs on top from Opera and vice versa."

Not convinced by Chrome? Read on to see the five reasons why it may crash and burn...

Internet Explorer's stranglehold

The average computer user tends to lack the technical know-how or motivation to change from the default Internet Explorer browser, giving Microsoft around 60 per cent of the market without even trying. Despite being the only really viable alternative to Internet Explorer's domination, Firefox has struggled to gain above 20 per cent of the browser market.

In spite of Google's huge brand leverage, analysts feel Chrome could still struggle to gain a foothold when faced with consumers who prefer to stick with what they know.

David Mitchell, VP for IT research at analysts Ovum, said: "Internet Explorer is still used by about 60 to 70 per cent of people and there is a big chunk of the population who are remarkable reticent to change platform.

"I think that Google will grab market share but whether they will knock IE off the top spot is another scenario.

Microsoft itself is confident of IE's unassailability. The company said: "The browser landscape is highly competitive but people will choose Internet Explorer 8 for the way it puts the services they want right at their fingertips, respects their personal choices about how they want to browse and puts them in control of their personal data online."

Bad track record

Despite Google's search dominance, its other home-grown applications have failed to attract anywhere near the same popularity.

It was one of the first companies to enter the social networking market with orkut but the site remains largely unknown outside of Brazil, and despite being launched before YouTube, Google Video always failed to match its popularity, eventually forcing Google to buy up its rival.

Similarly, despite being perhaps the most well known Google branded app outside of search, Gmail also still lags behind Windows Live Hotmail.

Nate Elliott, research director at analysts Jupiter Research, said: "In most cases the products that Google has delivered on its own have failed.

"To achieve success they have had to buy in services from elsewhere and not build them themselves."

Google backlash

With the Google brand already ubiquitous worldwide could the sheer scale of the search giant's reach start to scare consumers? Tor Odland, head of communications for rival browser Opera thinks the brand's possible future dominance could prompt an anti-Microsoft style backlash against the lack of choice available.

He said: "You have to ask whether people want to use products and services from only one company. It is a return to the days of Microsoft.

"I wonder how people will feel about being so tied into one company -- the one thing that the online world has taught us is that people like choice."

Damage to Google services

Google has traditionally taken a cross platform approach to its services and worked closely with its soon-to-be rivals Opera and Mozilla, and recently renewed a deal with Mozilla for Google to be the default search in Firefox. Focusing on Chrome could see those all-important bonds start to loosen.

Odland said: "It is important that they keep testing their services for compatibility with other browsers.

"We hope that they will continue to work with Opera and Mozilla to deliver a better internet experience."

Jupiter Research's Elliott believes Google is hedging its bets: "They have given themselves plenty of time to make progress in the browser market while maintaining a strong presence in Firefox."

How to get it out there?

There is also the question of how Google will get Chrome onto people's computers in the first place. Will it take the Apple approach of bundling it with other application downloads as with Safari in iTunes or Sun's bundling of Java downloads with Open Office.

Ovum's Mitchell said: "One thing that has not been made clear is what is their distribution strategy? Are they going to rely on downloads straight from the Google site or follow the lead of Apple?"

Elliott said: "Firefox is by all accounts a fantastic browser and still has less than 20 per cent browser share. That speaks volumes about how big an advantage Microsoft has by installing IE on PCs."